Optimism on the Day of Reckoning

Finally, May the 28th is here. Of course, due to our national habit of procrastination, our leaders are trying to forge a consensus on the last minute. While they had two full years to work on all of the major issues, the sticking points on this day are minor. They are not arguing about the nature and features of the new constitution. They are not disagreeing about the system of new government. They are not fighting over the constitutional words that would govern a new era of federalism. The disagreements on this day actually have nothing to do with constitution at all. The fight is about who gets to be on the driver's seat when we finally, hopefully, get around to actually drafting a new constitution. 

Needless to say the Nepali people are pessimistic about the prospects. And our pessimism is not just due to the inability of the political parties and their representatives to draft a new constitution in time. Our pessimism runs deeper. We have been cheated and waylaid countless times in the last twenty years of our experiments with democracy. Of course, the situation was no different during the prior 30 years of Panchayat autocracy, or the preceding 100 years of Rana dictatorship. Naturally, we see the glass as more than half empty. Understandably, as the daily needs - electricity, water, work - of the populace are not met, and while the state seems to be in a constant state of flux, we see no light beyond the horizon, no silver lining behind the dreary, historical dark clouds.

Manjushree Thapa says that for many decades the Nepali people have been waiting and waiting for things to change, for the basic needs to be met and for some form of stability and progress. Of course, there is going to be no stability today as the deadline passes. Even when the parties finally come to a compromise, there is going to be no stability in the near term future. The entire task of starting and completing the constitution remains, which is the bigger battle. No one can blame us for being pessimistic on this symbolic day of our morbid futility.

Cable Car Statism

One of the most successful private enterprises in the last twenty years, aside from the mushrooming banking industry, has been the Manakamana Cable Car service run by the Chitwan Co-E. It is exactly the kind of innovative, technological and social model of development that Nepal needs. While the political instability has taken a periodic toll on the cable car's business model, over the years the company and its operations has been wildly successful. Millions of Nepali and foreign travelers have enjoyed riding on Nepal's only cable car to pay a visit to the Manakamana temple. Although, I haven't been able to find any study of the project's impact, surely, the local economy of both Kurintar, Manakamana and the surrounding areas have seen the positive effects of the cable car. Not only does the service promote tourism but also enhances the economic benefits to the region.

So it is especially maddening to read (sorry, can't find the news link now) about the bureaucratic red tape faced by a new request made by Chitwan Co-E to build a new cable car operation in Pokhara. The request has to first go through the Ministry of Development, which formed a committee to decide if it was a good idea. After their prolonged preliminary report is completed, the request is passed on to the National Planning Commission which again forms its own committee to give its blessing before the project is finally approved by the government.

In a country where nothing moves without government meddling, this is a clear example of such practice. The fact is that neither the ministry engineers nor the planning commissioners have any experience building, running and maintaining a cable car operation. So why do they have to take such a long time and make the company, which has the experience, know-how and the will, to jump through hoops just to get their project approved? 

Another fact that is so bothersome is why does the company have to go the central ministry and the planning commission for approval? If the project is to be built in Pokhara, shouldn't the local municipality or the district government be given enough jurisdiction to decide on the request to build in their town? If there is one thing that a smartly designed federalism can do, it is to provide just such a jurisdiction to decide on the local level without having to go back to the center for any little agenda. The costs of the top-down governmental, social and economic structure of the Nepal is apparent with examples of state-overreach like these.

This case of Chitwan Co-E is just a minor example of the state hindering the widely beneficial economic activity by the private sector. One hopes that when the whole rigmarole of the current crisis is over and the constituent assembly finally gets down to drafting a new constitution, a federalism based on economic viability forms the core of new Nepal. 

Good News on the Unity Front!

Muse~Nepal's (now Aaraniko) only claim to fame--a minor blip, really--came with the two articles (here & here) I wrote explaining and divulging the scam that was Unity Life Assurance Company. That was almost a month ago. So it is finally some good news time today to read that the erstwhile irresponsible government has suddenly sprung to action and caught up with some of the fraudsters and their company assets. I only hope that they have some money to pay back the victims. Of course, like any other fraud a large portion of the ill-gotten gains may have already left the country. Yet, I hope that the victims might be able to recover at least some of what they paid.

A Victory for the Civil Society?

It was heartening to watch the peace rally organized by the civil-society to pressure the Maoists after a brutal week of May Day banda. It is the testament to the budding democratic norm of people's power after the last twenty years of continuous political turmoil that the rally itself was so successful. The fact that the show of force had the intended effect of the Maoists taking back their street protests is important. In the aftermath, however, it must be emphasized that the victory of the civil society is not as thorough as claimed and remains quite hollow and incomplete.

Before asking why the civil society has not been very effective, it is necessary to understand "who" the Nepali civil society is composed of. In a country where political affiliations to the parties is so strong and so deep across all the sectors of the society, it is hardly a surprise that there seems to be no visible, un-affiliated, groups of people that could form a truly independent base of civil society. After all, in every nook and cranny we find groups of competing party apparatus: from the student unions of all the parties in the colleges, to the workers affiliated to specific parties, to the farmers, the teachers, the government employees, each group have various political party organizations that claim their loyalty. So where is the true base of independent civil society loyal to the entire country and its people? 

Hearing the list of organizers of the "peace rally," it seems that the main block for the support for civil society were the educated, urban, businessmen and professionals. After all, those who represent and are members of FNCCI and PAPAD are the "sukila-mukila" of Nepal; indeed Prachanda's formulation was quite apt. But where Prachanda made the mistake in his characterization is that he seemed to be talking only about the organizers of the peace rally and not the actual attendees. Really, there is one major characteristic difference between the attendees at the peace rally and the Maoists supporters who descended on the valley: the simple urban/rural divide. 

Thus, so far the "civil-society" movement is largely a urban (which, by default forms the Nepali elites) phenomenon. The Kathmandu elites are the ones who were most inconvenienced by the Maoists' blockade: they could not ride their cars and motorcycles, they could not shop at the shops and malls, they could not use the ATMs and the banking services, they could not attend their private schools and colleges; simply they they could neither work nor play. Compounded in the short term discomfort was certainly the growing sense of drift that has plagued Nepal in the last twenty years. People, both urban and rural, are tired and cranky after seeing such continuous tumult. Hence, they found themselves lined up on the opposite side of the geographical, societal and economic divide against one another.

Of course, this characterization of the urban/rural divide as highlighted by the Maoist protests and the "civil-society" counter protests is common knowledge. It is uncontroversial. There have been many news reports from the days of the banda which clearly establishes this conflict as fact. The plight of the poor and downtrodden Maoists protesters have been documented as well. See here and here for some representative samples.

So now we see why the so-called "civil society" is so ineffective in the larger matters of the nation. Their block of support (urban, educated, professional) the least represented in the parties and the parliament. They have no real base outside of Kathmandu and other city-centers. Finally, they seem to be in no hurry to make them more relevant outside of their comfort zones. How does the intellectual, elite civil society establish its bonafides as the true independent voice of the people which can guide and force the parties to better policies and more cooperation for the greater good? 

Reading Ashutosh Tiwari's most recent column, I felt like he was wresting with the same questions as I was. And in a way, his suggestions would be a good place to start. 

The Links

Some of the interesting things that I read today: 

Prashant Jha in "Struck down" goes through a list of options that the Maoists have now that they have taken back their daily protests in the Nepali Times. Over at Nepalnews.com guest column, Jeevan Baniya responds to the familiar and foolhardy Nepali lament that Nepal needs a strong dictator and still argues for democracy imperfect as it may be.   Finally, in the Monday Interview in the Kathmandu Post, Biswas Baral talks about the dire state of the macroeconomic situation with Bishwambher Pyakuryal, professor of economics at TU.

When will our "Roadmap" come?

The current Maoist protests in Kathmandu and other parts of Nepal are curiously similar to the onoing Redshirts protest in Thailand. While the specific political scenario might be unique, the aim, character, and effects of both these protests are errily the same. A class of citizens led by a political faction have turned on the capital - protesting, singing and dancing on the streets - in hopes of toppling the government. The Nepali Maoists even share the red color of the Thai Redshirts. They are mostly bussed in from the countryside. They have worked hard to put a positive face and limited explicit conflicts with the government.

So it is interesting to see that it took 54 days for the Thai Redshirts and the government to arrive at a compromise roadmap, which will lead to the political solution of the crisis.

How many more days will our Reds last?