Finally, May the 28th is here. Of course, due to our national habit of procrastination, our leaders are trying to forge a consensus on the last minute. While they had two full years to work on all of the major issues, the sticking points on this day are minor. They are not arguing about the nature and features of the new constitution. They are not disagreeing about the system of new government. They are not fighting over the constitutional words that would govern a new era of federalism. The disagreements on this day actually have nothing to do with constitution at all. The fight is about who gets to be on the driver's seat when we finally, hopefully, get around to actually drafting a new constitution.
Needless to say the Nepali people are pessimistic about the prospects. And our pessimism is not just due to the inability of the political parties and their representatives to draft a new constitution in time. Our pessimism runs deeper. We have been cheated and waylaid countless times in the last twenty years of our experiments with democracy. Of course, the situation was no different during the prior 30 years of Panchayat autocracy, or the preceding 100 years of Rana dictatorship. Naturally, we see the glass as more than half empty. Understandably, as the daily needs - electricity, water, work - of the populace are not met, and while the state seems to be in a constant state of flux, we see no light beyond the horizon, no silver lining behind the dreary, historical dark clouds.
Manjushree Thapa says that for many decades the Nepali people have been waiting and waiting for things to change, for the basic needs to be met and for some form of stability and progress. Of course, there is going to be no stability today as the deadline passes. Even when the parties finally come to a compromise, there is going to be no stability in the near term future. The entire task of starting and completing the constitution remains, which is the bigger battle. No one can blame us for being pessimistic on this symbolic day of our morbid futility.
Yet, I have to admit I remain more optimistic about our future than anytime in the last 10 years. And the reason for my optimism has to do with relativity.
Compare the situation of today to just five years ago. A representative portrait from that time can be found in the chapter titled "The People's War" in Pankaj Mishra's book "Temptations of the West" published in 2006. Mishra, an Indian writer, traveled throughout South Asia - Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal & Tibet - in the first half of the last decade (2000-2005) and wrote about his journeys in hopes of answering his central question: "How do peoples with traditions extending back several millennia modernize themselves?"
Modernization was and is a pertinent challenge for the entire South Asian region. For countries that have been living under various forms of feudalism and dictatorships in a corrosive culture of illiteracy, corruption and economic deprivation, the very Western ideas of modernism with their attendant trappings of democracy, legality, individual freedom and equal opportunity present significant destabilizing tendencies. Modernism in the Western models fuels the needs and desires of the individual person, but the society is still stuck in a pre-modern time.
For Nepal the unique variety of our population, the historical segregation of our ruling classes, the unheard and unmet desires for equality and opportunity from the marginalized castes, and other similarly complex issues presented a unique challenge. The inept monarchy, especially under King Gyanendra, was unable to meet the demands of peace and rule of law. The ruling political and economic elites were loathe to cede their position of influence and power to the angry masses. The political parties were mired by their short term goals. And in that vacuum the ultra-revolutionary Maoists had found an opening to try to remake the entire fabric of the country in the violent model imported from a different time and place.
So in early 2005, when Mishra visited Kathmandu, we were still fighting a decade long civil war. The parliament had just been dissolved by Gyanendra and he had taken over absolute power. The political parties were in disarray. The people didn't know what was going to be the endgame. There were widespread fear and panic among people. No one could trust anyone.There were daily reports of deadly clashes between the Maoists and the King's army. Most importantly, there seemed to be no way out. The Maoists were intent on capturing the state by the barrel of the gun and the King was intent on crushing the Maoists just to save himself.
The situation exactly five years ago was much, much more dire and uncertain than today. Hence, my guarded optimism.
Besides, although everyone complains about how Nepal has been only suffering in the last twenty years at the hands of incompetent leaders. That is certainly true but the Nepali people and the private sector has thrived in Nepal at the same time despite the political turmoil. Things have been improving compared to twenty years ago. A part of the explanation is simply the effects of globalization, migration and remittances, and the opening up of India and China. Yet, the progress of the past twenty years is undeniable. The political progress of the past five years is evident. So yet again on this day of reckoning, I am quite optimistic that there will be eventual progress.
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