More on Nepali Optimism

As stated on my previous post, I am quite optimistic about Nepal's evolving political, social and economic situation, especially so when considered in the context of the rapid changes in the last twenty years. Needless to say, all the progress that has been made could be stopped or even partially reversed if some dramatic event (military coup, another civil war, or major ethnic violence) were to send the country into extreme chaos. But, an objective observer has to acknowledge that the recent period has accorded the Nepali people with  greater access, ability and opportunity. Bikalpa Paudel (via mohammad.tajim) has a wonderful rundown of all the positive changes that has occuredd since the restoration of democracy in 1990. 

The reason everyone feels so pessimistic and cynical about the experience of the last twenty years is that all the progress has been achieved not because of the wise leadership of the government or the political parties, but despite them. So most of us only rue the continuing political turmoil and ignore the progress achieved in the social and private sector despite the best efforts of our political class. The progess has clearly been due to the fortuitous amalgam of many  reasons.

First, the systemic change from the closed and autocratic Panchayat system to the relative openness in the political, social and the economic life of democracy set the stage for Nepalis to take important steps towards progress in many areas, especially in media, communications, education and travel.

Second, the tremendous rise of India and China influenced Nepal's trade and economy. The sudden rise of our next door neighbors clearly provided the Nepali people with many examples of progress in various areas and also gave us the opportunities to tap into their innovation and experiment. Due to our own openness, we could no longer ignore our neighbors material, cultural, and intellectual exports.

Finally, globalization played a major role. With globalization and its attendant dispersion of information and communication technology, cheap and easy transportation, and open flow of information and labor helped us get a foothold in the global economy. Of course, the only major export that we have been able to make is our labor force but if it were not for globalization not only would we be bereft of the remittance money but also from the ideas and innovations from the rest of the world. 

So it has to be said that even despite the ineptitude and constant feuding by our political leaders, the Nepali people, the private sector and the civil society have made tremendous progress in the most unfavorable conditions. If the situation were to remain the same, in the next twenty years we may be still be able to realize similar progress. As stated earlier, if the situation deteriorates drastically, much could be lost. 

But imagine, how much we could achieve if the political quagmire were to end and result in a modest period of stability? The Nepali people do not need a whole lot from their political leaders  and their government. If the current flux were to end by producing even a mediocre constitution which gives way to a modicum of political stability, a lot of the pessimists would see the real prospect of continued progress and durable change.